It has been said several times in connection with the new year that we do not know what 2018 will offer, but nevertheless there are some fixes that may be good to stick to.
For the climate there are two very important events, both in the autumn. In the first week of October, the IPCC – UN climate panel – publishes the long-awaited report and the conditions for reaching the target of 1.5-2.0 degrees increase in temperature since 1850. The goal is a part of the Paris agreement. But without prepondering the IPCC report, it looks very difficult when we look at recent years’ temperature rises, where it has been very strong – well helped by a powerful el Nino.
The second event is the annual COP meeting – this time COP24 in Katowice, Poland, which will take place in early December. Here the countries will make the first “stocktaking”, which in fact is a report of the initiatives of the countries, which has be initiated under the Paris agreement. Here there will also be an opportunity to lift the ambitions of the Paris agreement – thus increasing the reduction targets already on the table, which everyone knows is too small. For that use, the IPCC report is extremely important as background and inspiration.
It is also important, of course, that COP24 will discuss financial assistance to developing countries, loss and damage, compensation of climate hazards, technical details in Pars agreements etc, but to solve the climate issue itself, the main discussion about the objective of Paris agreement on maximum 2 degree rise in temperature, the most important.
What, in addition, will cause surprises during 2018, we do not know, but it is hardly unreasonable to imagine more violent weather events that will again underline the discussion of global warming. For Denmark and Northern Europe, it will be interesting year round to follow tendency from the last two years with much rain and unsteady weather. Will it ever be possible to stabilize the weather for a long period or is the lack of ice in the Arctic a catalyst for the untiring weather.
I will follow the development and convey it either here on the blog or on my news page. Both parts will be intensified here in 2018, when I have finally have left my job as weather presenter at DR in February.