Last year Carribbean islands were smashed by very strong hurricanes – Irma and Maria. Some of the islands are not yet being rebuild so they are not prepared for a new season. We have seen two forecasts for the season.
Colorado University issued their forecast two month ago saying they expect 14 named storms of which 6 should become hurricanes and 3 of those will become major hurricanes. These numbers are above average, but slightly less than last year 2017. The big question will be how many will hit Carribbean islands and the US continent. At least one major hurricane is expected to make landfall
Last week Michael Mann at Penn state University made his forecast saying he expect between 7 and 13 named storms- somewhat less than Colorado University. But Mann made no comment on major storms or landfall.
There are two reasons for the differences of the forecasts. First of all the sea temperature is very important. It must be above 26,5 deg C for hurricane to develop and the higher the temperature the more energy for the hurricane. Second the question is if a new el Nino will develop. If this happens the numbers of hurricanes will decrease due to higher winds aloft in the tradewind belt.
Presently temperatures in tradewind belt is a little lower than last year, but this can change in the coming month. The season begins 1st of June.